But low prices for single-family homes in New York’s sprawling subway soar 15%, fueled by the flight of Manhattanites?
Through Wolf Richter for LOUP STREET.
The headlines are everywhere: The housing market has gone mad with silly bidding wars and ridiculous price increases. Record-breaking interest rates last year and the Fed’s $ 3 trillion miracle moolah sparked this phenomenon, along with people moving out of some expensive large cities for suburbs, outlying areas and remote locations, including prices soared with the influx, while many leavers did not. yet put their old vacant homes on the market, hoping to spike prices, thus limiting stocks to sell. But not all things are equal, as we’ll see with condos and homes by price point in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the New York subway, based on S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
San Francisco Bay condo prices plummet.
Condominium prices in all five San Francisco Bay Area counties fell 1.2% in January from December, the eighth consecutive month of month-over-month decline. The index is down 1.5% from January of last year, down 5.1% from its May 2020 high, and roughly to its initial level in February 2018:
The Case-Shiller Index for “San Francisco” covers the counties of San Francisco, San Mateo (northern part of Silicon Valley), Alameda and Contra Costa (East Bay) and Marin (North Bay). It does not cover the southern part of Silicon Valley, including San Jose, and larger parts of North Bay (Sonoma and Napa counties) and Solano County.
In San Francisco County, condos represent the majority of the market. In the other departments, houses are in the majority.
A number of people have moved from San Francisco to the outer areas of the Bay Area. The move to Marin County is canceled because it is included in the index. But people have also moved to other counties not included in the index, such as Sonoma County, which has a hot housing market in part due to the influx of people from San Francisco.
Prices for all single-family homes in the San Francisco Bay Area, which has five counties, rose 0.2% in January from December and 9.5% year-on-year. By price level:
- Low prices (black line) fell 0.4% in January from December, the first month-over-month decline since 2019, after increasing the most in 2020. January’s drop reduced the year-over-year gain to 10.8% (vs. 11.4% in December)
- High level prices remained stable with December, and grew 7.9% year-on-year.
- Intermediate prices rose 0.4% in January compared to December and increased 10.8% year-on-year.
Los Angeles Condo Prices Are Left Behind By Home Prices.
The prices of single-family homes in the Los Angeles subway increased by 1.0% in January compared to December and by 10.8% compared to January 2020. By price brackets, different trajectories emerge:
Low-end house prices show by far the biggest increases during booms and by far the biggest drops during recessions, having collapsed by 56% between the top of the housing bubble 1 and the bottom of the housing recession . Since then, they have soared 163%, almost quadrupling since January 2000. In January, low-end prices jumped 1.4% from December and 10.4% year-on-year.
The prices of top-tier homes are the least volatile. They haven’t even “tripled” (sounds crazy) since January 2000. During the real estate crisis, they only plunged “33%” and have since increased “only” by 84%. In January, they were up 0.9% from December and 8.7% from a year ago.
Condominium prices rose 0.6% from the previous month and 5.2% year-on-year, about half the rate of the year-on-year price gains for mid- and lower-level homes.
Prices for condos in the New York City subway are still limited.
The Case-Shiller Index for New York City covers New York City and many counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. It is a large and diverse market.
Condo prices in the area rose 0.5% in January from December and are up 1.7% year over year, remaining in the same narrow range since January 2018, dotted with larger upward and downward movements:
But prices for low-story homes on the New York City subway in January jumped 1.4% from December and 14.9% year-on-year. This includes homes located in low-cost areas of the market where Manhattan leavers have flocked, pushing up prices.
Prices for midsize housing jumped 11.2% year-on-year. Prices for high-end homes jumped 11.3%; It is only in recent months that high prices have started to surpass the peak of the housing bubble 1. But condominiums have not participated in the price spikes that homes have been reveling in.
The graph is at the same scale as the equivalent graphs for Los Angeles and San Francisco, to show how prices have risen faster over the years on the two California subways than on the New York subway. But since 2020, house prices on the New York subway have been on fire across the board, although condos are not:
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