Historian who predicted every presidential race since 1984 says Trump likely won’t make a political comeback in 2024


Former President Donald Trump on the final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference February 28 in Orlando, Florida. Jabin Botsford / The Washington Post via Getty Images

  • Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the results of the US presidential election since 1984.

  • The professor believes former President Donald Trump is unlikely to mount a successful bid in 2024.

  • Lichtman told the Miami Herald that the former president was too mired in legal and financial issues.

  • See more stories on the Insider business page.

The historian renowned for his ability to successfully predict the outcome of the US presidential election told the Miami Herald that he thinks Donald Trump is unlikely to make a successful bid for a second term in 2024.

Allan Lichtman, professor of American political history at American University, has developed a series of “13 keys”, or questions that he uses to establish the probability of a candidate winning a presidential election, which he has. revealed in a recent book, “Predict the next president. “

He used the method to successfully project that Trump would win the 2016 election, while most pundits and bookmakers ruled out the reality TV star’s chances, and he predicted Joe Biden’s victory last year.

His experience in successfully predicting the outcome of presidential elections dates back to 1984.

In comments to the Herald, Lichtman referred to speculation Trump has sparked that he stand for election again in 2024.

Some observers, including Senator Mitt Romney, said Trump is a shoo-in to be the next GOP presidential candidate if he decides to run. But Lichtman is skeptical, telling the Herald that Trump “has too many other challenges ahead of him” and that he doesn’t think he will be the GOP candidate or a third-party candidate.

Trump faces a plethora of lawsuits. Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. is about to investigate allegations of tax and financial crimes at the Trump Organization, and a prosecutor in Georgia launched a criminal investigation into allegations that Trump illegally sought to corrupt the 2020 election results.

“He has over $ 400 million in loans coming up,” Lichtman said. “His brand is failing. His businesses are failing. He has a huge IRS audit. He is no longer in a position. He has lost his Twitter feed.”

Lichtman was apparently referring to a New York Times report from last year citing tax records, whose accuracy Trump has disputed, that he is heavily in debt.

The historian gave Biden a 9 out of 10 for his performance so far and said that even though the president would be 82 in 2024, he would not rule him out from running for reelection.

“There is also no precedent in American history for having started the presidency at 78,” Lichtman said. “But, as we know, precedents are meant to be broken.”

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