Lost Worlds http://lost-worlds.com/ Tue, 22 Nov 2022 13:15:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://lost-worlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cropped-icon-32x32.png Lost Worlds http://lost-worlds.com/ 32 32 Tax changes increase retirement contribution limits for 401(k)s and IRAs in 2023 https://lost-worlds.com/tax-changes-increase-retirement-contribution-limits-for-401ks-and-iras-in-2023/ Tue, 22 Nov 2022 13:15:00 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/tax-changes-increase-retirement-contribution-limits-for-401ks-and-iras-in-2023/

In light of the high inflation of 2022, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has increased the amounts you can contribute to retirement savings in 2023.

The amount you can contribute to a 401(k) has increased to $22,500, an increase of $2,000. The limit for IRA contributions is $6,500 up to $500.

Increase in retirement savings

If you have a retirement savings plan, whether it’s a 401(k), 403(b) most 457 plans, or the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), you can now save $22,500 $ during the calendar year. That’s up from $20,500 for 2022.

401(k) or similar plans are often considered an effective way to save for retirement because your money can grow tax-free. Matching employers can also help. Often, your employer will encourage you to save by matching all or part of your contributions up to a certain level. Additionally, since contributions to a 401(k) plan generally do not incur income tax, contributing to a 401(k) plan can also reduce your current tax bill.

Boost for IRAs

There is effectively a double boost for IRA savings in 2023. The amount you can save in an IRA plan increases from $6,000 to $6,500. Additionally, as income tax thresholds have increased, so have income limits for IRA contributions.

Similar to a 401(k), an IRA can be another tax-free way to save for retirement. If you use a traditional IRA, retirement withdrawals may be taxed, but contributions may be tax-deductible when you contribute. If you use a Roth IRA, you pay tax on the money that comes in, but retirement withdrawals should then be tax-free.

Phasing out traditional IRA contributions

For single taxpayers, the traditional IRA contribution phase starts at $73,000 and for married people filing jointly, the phase-out now starts at $116,000 if you have a workplace pension plan and $218,000 if you don’t have one.

Phasing out the Roth IRA contribution

For a Roth IRA, the 2023 single taxpayer phaseouts start at $138,000 of income. For married people filing jointly, it’s $218,000.

High inflation therefore has an advantage in that you may now be able to save more tax-free for your retirement in 2023.

S&P 500 volatility risk as dollar falls on reliable theme: Fed hikes https://lost-worlds.com/sp-500-volatility-risk-as-dollar-falls-on-reliable-theme-fed-hikes/ Tue, 22 Nov 2022 02:30:49 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/sp-500-volatility-risk-as-dollar-falls-on-reliable-theme-fed-hikes/

S&P 500, Dollar, Fed Forecast, Recession Risks and Liquidity Talking Points:

  • The market outlook: USDJPY bullish above 141; EURUSD bullish above 1.0000; Gold bearish below 1,750
  • The S&P 500 range on Monday was the smallest in three months: a historical comparison with a period before a major technical break
  • Thanksgiving liquidity will have some influence going forward, but that doesn’t mean the market will just freeze in place…just look at how the dollar is moving

Recommended by John Kicklighter

Introduction to Forex News Trading

We have entered a week where there is a known slowdown in activity: the well-known impact of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States on broader markets. Liquidity and volatility don’t always benefit from a positive correlation, but calm conditions without provocative fundamental updates can lull market participants into a comfortable holding pattern. This seems to be the pace the markets were aiming for to start this week. As the World Cup tournament distracted many traders, the benchmark S&P 500 (one of my favorite and imperfect measures of “risk”) carved out an exceptionally small trading range. The under-24-point range throughout the session represented the smallest stretch of the day in place percentage since August 18. For the viewer of the chart, this happens to be the end of the consolidation after a bullish leg from July to August. Many may focus on the change in direction – which was significant – but I think the escalation in activity is a more reliable comparison. These are exceptionally small trading ranges for both the Monday session and the last 7 day chop; and the risk of volatility stimulated by low liquidity is probably very high. Yet, if such a break occurs before the holidays; tracking will be just as easily stalled by the lack of liquidity in Thursday’s US session.

Chart of S&P 500 with 100 and 200 day SMA and 1 day historical range (daily)

Chart created on Tradingview Platform

While many “risk” trending assets struggled to generate significant heat in active trading over the past session, there was a noticeable outlier in terms of traction. The US Dollar managed to gain a significant rebound during the last session. And, while it wasn’t a record load by a long shot, it represented one of the biggest one-day rises we’ve seen since the market started to really challenge the prevailing trend. . This would lead to an interesting capitulation of the bullish leg of EURUSD after it failed to hold above 1.0350 as well as USDJPY extending its rebound above 141 – and would put pressure on Japanese political authorities who had failed to gain ground in previous months through active intervention. in the name of the yen. Equally good progress was recorded in key commodities priced in dollars, such as gold which accelerated in its four-day slide. Crude Oil, on the other hand, came under severe strain during the first half of Monday’s session but managed to reverse most of its losses and fight a rally away from the greenback.

Recommended by John Kicklighter

How to trade EUR/USD

Chart of the DXY Dollar Index overlaid on the June 2023 implied federal funds rate (daily)


Chart created on Tradingview platform

What moves the dollar where broader capital markets are struggling? Basic motivation. While the economic record was very light at the opening this week, there is nevertheless active speculation around interest rate expectations. The rebate demanded on the dollar after the October CPI release two weeks ago appears to have significantly exceeded real expectations for interest rates as measured by Fed Funds futures or other similar measures. With Fed officials like Loretta Mester offering such comments that she thinks the central bank is “far close” to the end of its tightening regime, it’s no surprise that there is active rebalancing going on. fundamental assumptions via the dollar. That said, rate forecasting remains an open theme based more on the balance of speculation via products such as Treasury yields than on forecast data – as there isn’t much over the next session that will tip the scales here without the central bank talking. That said, recession fears may carry more weight over the next 48 hours.

Risk of a critical macro event on the global economic calendar for next week


Calendar created by John Kicklighter

As we face further rhetoric from central banks in the coming session – including the leading trio of Fed hawks in Mester, George and Bullard – the focus is likely to shift to economic forecast – or more correctly, the assessment of the recession. The past session has seen an increasingly deep inversion in the 2- to 10-year Treasury yield curve watched by investors. As of Monday’s close, the negative figure is the highest in four decades. Further evidence of economic pain is unnecessary, but the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Survey for October reinforces a trend in the data punctuated by the Conference Board’s leading economic index on Friday. We will see the most important and time-sensitive look at economic activity in developed countries with Wednesday’s PMI release; but for now, the market is ready to operate complacently. What happens when the market is more accepting of an impending recession? and what will solidify this painful perspective?

Chart of average weekly performance of the S&P 500 by calendar year since 1900


Chart created on Tradingview platform

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Expect S&P 500 and dollar volatility to be loaded with uneven liquidity next week https://lost-worlds.com/expect-sp-500-and-dollar-volatility-to-be-loaded-with-uneven-liquidity-next-week/ Sat, 19 Nov 2022 00:00:01 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/expect-sp-500-and-dollar-volatility-to-be-loaded-with-uneven-liquidity-next-week/

S&P 500, Dollar, Fed Forecast, Recession Risks and Liquidity Talking Points:

  • The market outlook: USDJPY bullish above 141; EURUSD bullish above 1.0000; Gold bearish below 1,750
  • Congestion has built for the S&P 500 and the dollar, which will build on expectations already presented by the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday cash drain.
  • The divergence in the Fed’s rate forecast may put pressure on a breakout of the dollar, but it is also important to monitor the broader rate forecast and the threat of recession

Recommended by John Kicklighter

Building confidence in trading

Not two weeks ago, we were in the midst of exceptional volatility which rightly proved favorable to “risk on” and a “dollar bearish” outlook. The catalyst for this move was the weaker than expected US consumer inflation report, which in turn would tap into the theme of interest rate speculation, which is reliably acting in the market. Despite speculation around a lower “terminal” benchmark rate this update would trigger, there hasn’t been much of a run after the initial load. This should come as no surprise given the still high rate of price pressures and headwinds from issues like an incoming recession. There may be a precarious balance in the macro backdrop, but it’s the ebb of liquidity we have ahead of us that could ultimately prevent a risk measure like the S&P 500 from clearing its well-established technical range that many moving averages, Fibonacci retracements and historically significant levels.

Chart of S&P 500 with 100 and 200 day SMA and 1-day (daily) rate of change

Chart created on Tradingview platform

Taking our benchmark for what is ahead of historical norms, November is known as a period in which volume and volatility historically decline as the underlying S&P 500 averaged its second-best performance ever. the calendar year. However, there are other activities to be found within the month itself. On a more granular basis, the 47th week of the year (which we are entering) averaged the third largest weekly loss of the year. That would seem at odds with expectations of a late holiday market with Thanksgiving next Thursday. It should be noted that historically, holidays in the United States do not always fall on the same week of the year, although they usually fall between the 47th and 48th week.

Chart of average weekly performance of the S&P 500 by calendar year since 1900


Graphic created by John Kicklighter

Whether Thanksgiving is the 47th or 48th week of the year, the implications for volatility appear to be about the same. If we look at the historical averages of the VIX since the beginning of its official series (1990), there is historically a drop in activity. Again, there are always possibilities for exceptions. In fact, in 2021 there was an increase in volatility during the 48th and 49th weeks of the year. It all depends on the fundamental direction of the market as well as scheduled and unscheduled events running through the wires. On this front, we have a seriously unresolved backdrop for a darkening recession. When it comes to upcoming event risk, there are a few known releases that have the ability to stir the markets.

Chart of the current VIX and the average weekly level of the VIX since 1990


Graphic created by John Kicklighter

Risks and Themes of Scheduled Events

Based on the expected economic record for the coming week, there is definitely a bottleneck in notable releases through the end of next week, but there are more than a few high profile listings that I will be watching for potential. of volatility. For the most comprehensive and overarching theme, the overall and timely picture of economic activity will come through November PMIs due Wednesday. The compass of these economic measures has been pointing south for the past few months and many are in technical contraction. If this trend continues, the threat into which reality sinks will only increase. Meanwhile, indicators like the Chicago Fed’s US National Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales will reflect important aspects for the world’s largest economy. Earnings may also be light this week, but updates from Best Buy, Dollar Tree and even Baidu will talk about important standards (even carry, inflation and China).

Risk of a critical macro event on the global economic calendar for next week


Calendar created by John Kicklighter

While the threat of recession remains for me the most nebulous, and therefore the most powerful fundamental theme that is progressing; there are other topics that are more than capable of generating volatility. For the US dollar and financial markets, the outlook for monetary policy remains a strong driver. Last week, the Fed’s speech offered an unequivocal underlying message: that despite the recent ebb in inflation, there was still more tightening to be done – and at a higher terminal rate than previously expected. In terms of market expectations through fed funds futures, the rate implied through June 2023 wobbled only slightly and has since rallied above 5.00%. This provides a significantly divergent short-term position between these implied rates and the performance of the dollar. Will they continue to diverge or realign? And, if one corrects the other; who will capitulate.

Recommended by John Kicklighter

Get your free USD forecast

Chart of the DXY Dollar Index overlaid on the June 2023 implied federal funds rate (daily)


Chart created on Tradingview platform

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Jefferies Financial Group is raising its earnings per share estimate for Infineon Technologies AG (OTCMKTS: IFNNY) for fiscal 2023. https://lost-worlds.com/jefferies-financial-group-is-raising-its-earnings-per-share-estimate-for-infineon-technologies-ag-otcmkts-ifnny-for-fiscal-2023/ Fri, 18 Nov 2022 16:12:09 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/jefferies-financial-group-is-raising-its-earnings-per-share-estimate-for-infineon-technologies-ag-otcmkts-ifnny-for-fiscal-2023/

In a note to investors dated Nov. 15, Jefferies Financial Group said it raised its earnings forecast for Infineon Technologies AG (OTCMKTS: IFNNY) for fiscal 2023. A Jefferies Financial Group analyst named J. Menon forecast that the technology The company will earn $2.11 per share in 2018, an increase from the company’s earnings of $1.71 per share in 2017. The latest earnings forecast for Infineon Technologies is $2.08 per share for the company. ‘year. Additionally, Jefferies Financial Group expects Infineon Technologies to report earnings of $1.53 per share in fiscal 2024 and $2.14 per share in fiscal 2025. These numbers are taken from the company’s latest annual report. society.

OTCMKTS:IFNNY began trading at $33.12 per share on Thursday. The company’s market capitalization currently sits at $43.25 billion, with a PE ratio of 15.73, a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.67, and a beta value of 1.67. Infineon Technologies hit a year-to-date low of $21.43, while its year-to-date high was $49.60. There is a debt ratio of 0.41, the quick ratio is 1.23, the current ratio is 1.79 and the quick ratio is 1.23. The moving average for the company over the past 50 days is $25.08 and the moving average over the past 200 days is $26.15.
Recently, reports regarding the stock written by various other stock experts have been made public. Morgan Stanley began covering Infineon Technologies shares on Tuesday, November 8, in a research note they released. They assessed the stock as having “equal weight”, which means “equal value”. Credit Suisse Group raised its price target on Infineon Technologies shares from €42.50 ($43.81) to €47.40 ($48.87) and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report released Wednesday. One financial analyst recommends investors sell the stock, two recommend holding it, and four recommend investors buy it. According to data provided by Bloomberg, the company’s current average rating is “Hold” and the price target has been set at $39.65.
Infineon Technologies AG is a multinational semiconductor company that designs, develops, manufactures and sells semiconductors and related system solutions. Its products can be found in a wide variety of electronic devices. Microcontrollers are available for assistance and safety systems, convenience electronics, infotainment, powertrain and safety products. These microcontrollers include 3D time-of-flight, magnetic, and pressure sensors; discrete power semiconductors; IGBT modules; automotive microcontrollers; industrial microcontrollers; integrated circuits (ICs) for power sensors and radars; transceivers; silicon carbide diodes; MOSFETs and modules; and voltage regulators. All

The G20 says it wants to ‘recover together’ – but is it really? https://lost-worlds.com/the-g20-says-it-wants-to-recover-together-but-is-it-really/ Fri, 18 Nov 2022 04:00:41 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/the-g20-says-it-wants-to-recover-together-but-is-it-really/

The G20 is often described as a workshop discussion that is long on intent but short on actionable details. The intent is reflected in the opening lines of its joint statement: “As major economies, we collectively bear responsibilities and…our cooperation was necessary for global economic recovery…and [we must] lay the foundations for strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth.

The G20 economies represent 80% of global GDP, 75% of international trade and 60% of the world’s population. It is therefore a leading forum for global economic cooperation. The theme of the G20 meeting in Bali under the chairmanship of Indonesia is “Recover Together, Recover Stronger”.

“Recover Together” is set against the backdrop of post-Covid economic crises and disruptions to global production value chains, aggravated by the war in Ukraine which has created severe food and energy insecurity. The G-20 communiqué is eloquent on this subject, but does not provide a detailed roadmap for economies to coordinate their macroeconomic policies to “recover together”.

Developed economies are largely inward-looking and tend to give little thought to the impact of their macroeconomic policies on the developing world. So where is the element of unity in the global stimulus mechanism?

Politics in the United States, the world’s largest economy, is domestically focused on controlling inflation at all costs by aggressively raising interest rates. It has imposed heavy costs on developing economies, whose currencies are rapidly losing value, making it increasingly expensive to import food and energy. The food and energy crisis is aggravated by the constant appreciation of the dollar against the currencies of developing countries, net importers of energy.

Some US analysts are calling for extraordinary measures – market interventions to stem the dollar’s rise beyond one point. This could bring some relief to developing economies which could recover faster, boosting global growth, it has been argued.

The rising US dollar and more expensive energy imports have even endangered India’s macroeconomic situation by dramatically increasing the current account deficit to over 3% of GDP. For the first time in decades, India will experience a significant negative balance of payments for 2022-23.

The most important point is that the US and strong EU economies have a very high per capita income base. So if they adjust their policy to allow low- and middle-income countries to recover quickly, then the G20 slogan “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” might hold firm.

The statement talks about allowing increased capital flows and trade, but the IMF forecasts a sharp deceleration in GDP growth and global trade in 2023. All macroeconomic strategies in the developed world, including the aggressively hawkish monetary stance of the United States, lead to a destination ― a sharp slowdown or mild recession. In such a situation, developing economies, which do not have an adequate social safety net, will be the hardest hit. The G20 Presidency arrives in India at the most difficult times.

In 2008, after the global financial crises, the G20 rebounded together because it was easier to get each country to ease its fiscal and monetary policies. But today, macroeconomic coordination is much more difficult as each economy is under pressure to tighten fiscal and monetary policies, which were eased a lot during the Covid crisis. The policy direction is the opposite of what we saw after the 2008 global financial crisis.

If most of the G20 economies tighten, a sharp global economic slowdown and much pain must ensue. Under India’s leadership, the G20 will need to discuss how this hard landing policy, particularly in the US and EU, can be calibrated to minimize harm to poor countries. It’s a bumpy road ahead.

This article first appeared on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been reposted here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click on here.

Here’s what they didn’t teach you in med school • The Medical Republic https://lost-worlds.com/heres-what-they-didnt-teach-you-in-med-school-the-medical-republic/ Wed, 16 Nov 2022 05:39:18 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/heres-what-they-didnt-teach-you-in-med-school-the-medical-republic/

Life as a GP can be tough, but here’s Professor Candid with some handy tips to help you get through the day.

GP TIP #305: If you see a complicated patient with multiple intertwined health issues, then don’t think about charging anything other than a 23.

GP TIP #315: When in doubt, charge a 23.

GP HACK #457: Always plan your escape route. It can be a zipline, a tunnel or a Scooby-Doo secret door.

GP HACK #732: If you have a void in your life, try filling it with gin.

GP TIP #35: If you’re stuck in a rut, try doing something completely different. Why not spend the night at IKEA, hidden in a fake Swedish jewel apartment pretending your name is Anders Jonas Ångström. The next morning, when the lights come back on and the staff find you reclining in a swivel chair, smoking a pipe in a cashmere sweater, I guarantee you’ll have a very different outlook on life.

GP HACK #567: Life is short and everything dies. It’s a very useful quote – pin it on your wall and reference its wisdom throughout the consultations.

GP HACK #217: Keep a shoebox full of wasps available on your desk. When you’ve had enough, remove the lid and run out of the room.

GP TIP #21: Keep your face straight. If a patient tells you they’ve had a bad weekend and want all known orifices cleaned, including the throat, anus, nose, and vagina, it’s important to remain expressionless. Don’t make the face you would if someone had just asked you to smell their armpits.

GP TIP #329: Remember, you are not here to judge. Except when you are.

GP HACK #6211: Never laugh at a patient. If they tell you they were accidentally baptized by 7th-day Adventists or they need a replacement diazepam script because an opossum stole the original, or they don’t believe in science because “you can prove anything with facts, can’t you doc”, don’t laugh!

GP HACK #212: Not being able to see through your otoscope because it’s clogged with years of other people’s earwax is a badge of honor. Not being able to hear anything through your stethoscope because it’s clogged with your own earwax is equally honorable.

GP HACK #322: You may think GPs are young, impressionable and eager to learn from you. Do not be mistaken ! They are here to take exams and pay their mortgage. They don’t want you telling them they have to keep a box of wasps in their bedroom and spend the night locked in IKEA.

3 Ways to Turn Bitcoin Volatility to Your Advantage Today https://lost-worlds.com/3-ways-to-turn-bitcoin-volatility-to-your-advantage-today/ Tue, 15 Nov 2022 05:14:30 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/3-ways-to-turn-bitcoin-volatility-to-your-advantage-today/

FTX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, recently went bankrupt.

Several billion dollars in value evaporated in minutes when this unhealthy institution collapsed.

It created a true “blood in the streets” moment, weighing heavily on the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoiner Matt Odell summed it up best:

“It’s a story of fiat inducements, shitcoin games, regulatory corruption and counterparty risk that ended in inevitable disaster. It will serve as a costly reminder that bitcoin held in self-custody is unique in its zero counterparty risk. You can easily and cheaply store it yourself and send it around the world without trusting anyone or asking permission. Learn how to hold bitcoin yourself and how to use it sovereignly.

It should be pointed out that FTX, and other similar companies, are not at all the same thing as Bitcoin – an emerging global currency that no one can inflate or control and which is accessible to everyone.

For example, suppose an unscrupulous gold storage company has become insolvent. This would not mean that the gold is defective.

The collapse of FTX will undoubtedly be a drag on the price of Bitcoin in the short term. But on the bright side, it will help cleanse the industry of bad actors and offer crucial lessons.

I don’t expect the collapse of FTX to have a lasting negative effect on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been through several more explosive incidents in the past and emerged stronger than ever (see the 2014 Mt. Gox bankruptcy, for example).

However, I expect Bitcoin to remain volatile, as it has always been since its inception.

Something is wrong with the lack of value to the importance of global money without volatility.

For example, Bitcoin has fallen from zero value in 2009 to $69,000 in November 2021 to around $17,000 today, down more than 75% from its previous peak.

It is essential to keep in mind that recent volatility is normal.

It is common for Bitcoin to have large corrections of 50% or more, which has happened eight times. Additionally, there have been three occasions where Bitcoin has declined by 80% or more.

If you zoom out and look at the big picture, Bitcoin’s volatility has mostly been on the upside over the long term.

Say you go back four years ago and tell someone that Bitcoin “crashed” to $16,000. It would have been so amazing that you would probably be laughed out of the room.

Bitcoin continues to rebound stronger than ever due to the fundamentals underlying this megatrend. This is a new and superior form of money in the early stages of adoption.

The monetization of a new global currency is unlike anything anyone has ever seen. It doesn’t happen overnight, and it’s an inherently volatile process.

As adoption grows and Bitcoin becomes more established as a currency, volatility should subside, but likely at a much higher price. That’s why you want to buy Bitcoin – and the best Bitcoin mining stocks (more on that below) – before the rest of the world discovers its superior monetary properties, namely its complete inflation resistance of its supply.

It will be a wild ride – like a violent roller coaster – but I think it will reward patient investors.

Bitcoin’s volatility is the price we have to pay to earn outsized gains as it undergoes the monetization process.

Here is the bottom line.

Investors will face volatility in Bitcoin for the foreseeable future.

Instead of looking anxiously at price charts daily, I suggest focusing on the big picture and the fundamentals of the underlying trend.

The key is to understand the disruption before most, invest early, and have positions small enough to ride the megatrend without worrying about volatility crushing you at the worst possible time.

Whenever you see volatility in the price of Bitcoin, ask yourself two things:

1) Does Bitcoin still have superior monetary properties (total inflation resistance of its supply)?

2) Is Bitcoin still unstoppable?

If the answer to both of these questions is “Yes”, I wouldn’t be too worried.

With that in mind, let’s take a close look at three crucial strategies that can help tame Bitcoin’s wild volatility.

Strategy #1: Average Dollar Cost (DCA)

The best way to buy Bitcoin is to avoid buying it in one big purchase.

Instead, given the volatility of Bitcoin, a long-term Dollar Cost Average (DCA) approach is optimal.

For example, suppose you want to invest $10,000 in Bitcoin. Instead of buying $10,000 all at once, buy about $192 every week for a year.

DCA greatly reduces the risk of buying too much at the top of a cycle and not buying at the bottom.

This is how DCA can turn Bitcoin’s volatility in your favor.

Swan Bitcoin offers a convenient platform that automates DCA purchases for you, including withdrawals to your own wallet, which is essential for eliminating counterparty risk. I have personally used it and found their service helpful.

More details can be found at the link above, including a useful calculator that displays a DCA strategy’s performance in the past and a $10 free Bitcoin bonus for signing up with this link.

Strategy #2: Don’t let anyone else hold your Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a digital bearer instrument. A bearer security gives whoever owns it ownership of it.

If you hold your Bitcoin on Coinbase or another platform, you don’t really own your Bitcoin and are taking on significant counterparty risk. Instead, you own a Bitcoin IOU, which is something quite different, as FTX customers are currently finding out.

It’s much safer to keep your Bitcoin off the exchange’s website in your own self-service wallet, where you control the private keys.

For starters, start with the Muun Wallet or the Blockstream Green Wallet for your phone. Both are excellent choices and are among the easiest to use. BlueWallet is a good choice for intermediate users on mobile phones. Finally, Electrum and Sparrow Wallet are great options for laptops and desktop computers, which are often more secure than a mobile phone.

Whichever self-service wallet you use, ALWAYS make sure you have backed up your wallet correctly. Each wallet is different and will give you instructions for making the backup. This way you won’t lose your funds if you lose your phone or laptop.

It is crucial to complete this step when setting up your self-service wallet, as it is the ONLY way to recover your funds if something happens to your device. Bitcoin has no customer service.

Strategy #3: Have a four-year time horizon

Plan to hold Bitcoin for at least four years, through a halving cycle.

According to its fixed protocol, we know precisely how the supply of Bitcoin will increase in the future. A key feature is that the new supply is halved every four years, a process known as halving.

Rarely has there been a period when the price of Bitcoin was lower than it was four years ago. When this happened, it was fantastic buying opportunities. But, of course, past performance does not indicate future results.

The 200-week moving average (200 WMA) is a useful metric because it contains nearly four years of price data, roughly the length of a halving cycle. Historically, the 200 WMA has been a good indication of the Bitcoin price floor.

As we can see in the chart above, now is one of those rare times when Bitcoin price is trading below its 200 WMA.

However, the opportunity may soon be gone.

Historically, Bitcoin’s biggest upside moves happen very quickly…especially in the midst of a financial crisis.

With several crises unfolding right now, the next big move could be imminent.

That’s why I just published an urgent PDF report, it’s called:

The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years…The Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now

It details how this could all unfold soon…and what you can do about it. Click here to download the PDF now.

CRISIL, Energy News, ET EnergyWorld https://lost-worlds.com/crisil-energy-news-et-energyworld/ Mon, 14 Nov 2022 06:36:00 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/crisil-energy-news-et-energyworld/

New Delhi: Renewable the decision of the Ministry of Energy to consider basic customs duty (DCB) on the import of solar cells and modules as a law change event and allowing its transmission could raise the tariff by 50-70 paise per unit of electricity for eligible projects, research agency CRISIS said Monday.

According to the official press release, the increased tariff will remain below the average cost of purchasing electricity for discoms in India.

“However, this announcement provides partial relief for up to 6 GW of solar projects are already seeing high project costs as they are about to make import modules from this exercise,” he added.

The imposition of 40% BCD on importing modules and 25% on importing cells starting April 1, 2022 has increased the cost of the project by around 25%, driving down already low returns for developers , added CRISIL.

“Based on our discussions with industry players, we estimate that for 50-60% of the 17 GW capacity, the modules can be procured domestically, which keeps them outside the scope of the For another 10-15% of this capacity, modules were imported before BCD was imposed,” said Manish Gupta, Senior Director of CRISIL Ratings.

He added that treating BCD as a law change event will benefit remaining capacity up to 6 GW, making the projects economically viable.

These projects were offered at rates ranging from Rs 1.99 per unit to Rs 2.92 per unit, with only about 20 percent of the projects being priced above Rs 2.55 per unit, thus the increase of the tariff pass-through is expected to be in the range of Rs 3 per unit to Rs 3.2 per unit, which keeps them competitive with the average cost of supplying electricity to discoms in India.

“The tariff pass-through represents only partial relief, as returns from these projects will remain lower than expected at the time of the tender, with module prices having increased by around 50% since then. This contrasts with industry expectations of lower prices, in line with past trends, and was not budgeted in the tariffs during the tender,” said Ankit Hakhu, Director of CRISIL Ratings .

The imposition of the BCD was likely to impact approximately 17 GW of projects tendered between October 1, 2019 and March 9, 20216. These projects were likely to acquire modules after April 1, 2022 and would not have been able to factor customs duties into their bid prices. ]]> Biggest RV Park Conventions Ignore The Elephant In The Room https://lost-worlds.com/biggest-rv-park-conventions-ignore-the-elephant-in-the-room/ Sun, 13 Nov 2022 04:26:42 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/biggest-rv-park-conventions-ignore-the-elephant-in-the-room/

Owners of private campgrounds from across the country traveled to Orlando, Florida for fifteen of the biggest annual conventions of the year, hosted by the National Association of RV Parks and Campgrounds ( ARVC) last week and Kampgrounds of America (KOA) this week. But while the most important topic on the ARVC agenda was electric vehicles (EVs) and how they “are poised to become a major factor in the future of outdoor hospitality” , the elephant outside the room was staunchly ignored, even though he was literally pounding away. the door to be recognized.

Coming into its meeting, the ARVC had just received an object lesson from Hurricane Ian on how a rapidly changing climate is upending the industry’s traditional business practices. Several dozen Florida campgrounds had been closed by Ian’s rampage, some permanently. Would even an organization as stubborn as the ARVC notice a growing existential threat to its members, not just in Florida, but across an entire country plagued by extreme drought, flooding, and wildfires? How to deal with skyrocketing costs and unavailability of property insurance, best practices in areas prone to fire or flooding, how to determine when it no longer makes sense to rebuild – all that and a whole host of other urgent matters could and should have been in the program of the ARVC.

But no. They do not have. Instead, as Tropical Storm (and briefly Hurricane) Nicole pounded the Atlantic coast, canceled all flights out of Orlando, knocked out power to hundreds of thousands, and killed at least two. , ARVC convention attendees were treated to the usual amenities promotion smorgasbord. and revenue-enhancing topics: best practices for generating additional revenue, the importance of ADA-compliant websites, “Scooters and Bikes and Golf Carts – Oh My!” Trade association agendas, after all, are driven by vested interests that have something to sell.

Electric vehicle charging is a hot topic at the RV convention

Indeed, the big topic of the day was the impending wave of electric vehicles – ironically, a wave propelled by climate change – as congress-goers were urged to start installing EV charging stations, even if not only gradually. Although evidence of market demand is still thin, the ARVC has made the most of what it has, saying that 57% of respondents to a survey it conducted last summer said the Availability of an EV charging station would be important to them when choosing a campground.

Well, sort of. The survey received limited attention on the convention floor, perhaps because of 32,271 potential respondents, only 581 chose to answer and only 457 were chosen for most data points. Additionally, the 57% response regarding the importance of EV charging stations came from 18 campers who already own an EV and another 28 who said they plan to buy one next year. It is a thin reed on which to float expectations, torn from a larger raft of dubious usefulness. As the polling company itself acknowledged, “it’s unclear how those who responded to the survey might be different from those who didn’t.”

For campground owners trying to get ahead, however, the caveat isn’t necessarily one of capital costs. Level 2 charging stations, which can charge an EV overnight, are relatively inexpensive: expect $500 for equipment and possibly a similar amount for installation. (Level 3 “fast” chargers, on the other hand, are commercial grade and therefore in an entirely different price category, starting from a minimum $20,000 per loader. That hasn’t deterred some speakers from pushing them anyway.) Assuming, therefore, that a campground wanted to dabble in the world of electric vehicles with half a dozen Level 2 chargers, it could doing it for around $6,000, which would win ‘n’t break anyone’s bank.

The larger and largely unresolved issue, however, was how campgrounds will be able to recoup their “fuel” costs. Since the amount of EV traffic in RV parks is still nominal, most campgrounds that allow EV charging, either through an RV cradle or through a dedicated charger , are currently absorbing the cost as loss of goodwill. Once this nominal expense becomes a growing impact on the bottom line, however, the inevitable question will become how RV parks can begin to charge for the energy they donated.

The answer, alas, is “it depends”.

Electricity sales, unlike gasoline, are monopolized by electric utilities operating under rules that vary from state to state, with billing practices that vary from utility to utility. ‘other. Most states, for example, don’t allow power dealers to make a profit doing so — all they can do is pass on their costs. A workaround proposed by a convention panelist, whereby campgrounds charge for kilowatts consumed at utility rates, but then add a “convenience fee” to allow electric vehicles to plug in, seems like a magnet. on trial for any public service jealously defending its territory. Meanwhile, seven states are still regulating electric vehicle charging as the exclusive field of power companies, as described in a recent Politico article.

A second variable is what’s known as the “application fee,” which many owners don’t encounter, but some business owners, including those who own campgrounds, know all too well. Demand charges are intended to compensate utilities for providing sufficient delivery infrastructure to meet peaks in demand caused by businesses with highly variable consumption, such as campgrounds. The power charge is a base charge that is multiplied by the kilowatts consumed at peak demand each month and added to the cost per kilowatt of the electricity itself.

The problem for campground owners is that there is no standard application fee across the country: these fees vary wildly from utility to utility. A relatively modest power load in one service area may be excessively high in an adjacent area. And while level 2 charging stations are not consumption black holes like level 3 stations, they can nevertheless add a noticeable boost to peak demand that will have a disproportionate effect on the final bill.

Campground owners, for these and other reasons, should abandon any idea of ​​installing Level 3 charging stations altogether. that application fees are up to 80% of the cost” of operating Level 3 charging stations. And those stations, remember, cost tens of thousands of dollars for hardware alone.

Sorting through such cost complexities requires a lot of study and perhaps the advice of a consultant – anything but ensuring that electric vehicles will remain a convention staple for some time to come, because there is money to be made by selling things. Too bad it’s not so true for the company to take on the elephants, no matter what destruction they cause. This requires real leadership, a rare commodity.


Andy Zipser is the author of Rent landthe story of his family’s experiences owning and operating an RV park in Virginia, and Turn the dirt, a step-by-step guide to finding, buying, and operating an RV park and campground. Both books are available in bookstores or on Amazon.com.


]]> ‘Many potential buyers are waiting for mortgage rate volatility to subside’: Mortgage rates hit 7.08%, Freddie Mac says https://lost-worlds.com/many-potential-buyers-are-waiting-for-mortgage-rate-volatility-to-subside-mortgage-rates-hit-7-08-freddie-mac-says/ Sat, 12 Nov 2022 13:47:00 +0000 https://lost-worlds.com/many-potential-buyers-are-waiting-for-mortgage-rate-volatility-to-subside-mortgage-rates-hit-7-08-freddie-mac-says/

By Aarthi Swaminathan

The 30-year mortgage rate has not been at this level since mid-2002

By the Numbers: The housing sector continues to face headwinds.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.08% as of Nov. 10, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac (FMCC).

The 30-year-old was last at this level in mid-2002.

That’s an increase of 13 basis points from the previous week – one basis point equals one hundredth of a percentage point, or 1% of 1%.

Last week, the 30-year was at 6.95%. Last year, the 30-year averaged 2.98%

The average 15-year mortgage rate rose to 6.38%.

“The housing market is the most interest rate sensitive segment of the economy, and the impact of rates on homebuyers continues to evolve,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, in a press release.

“Home sales have declined significantly and as we approach the end of the year, they are not expected to improve,” he added.

The variable rate mortgage averaged 6.06%, up from the previous week.

What do they say? Some buyers are tired of waiting for rates to stabilize and jump with rates of 7%, an industry group said.

“Although mortgage rates remained above 7% last week, home buying inquiries rose for the first time in six weeks,” said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of Mortgage. Bankers Association, in a statement.

Still, “many potential buyers are waiting for mortgage rate volatility to decrease, along with a clearer picture of the economic outlook,” he added.

Mortgage demand remains weak overall as refinances plunge, the MBA said Wednesday.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.8% in Thursday’s morning trading session.

Do you have ideas on the housing market? Write to MarketWatch reporter Aarthi Swaminathan at aarthi@marketwatch.com

-Aarthi Swaminathan


(END) Dow Jones Newswire

11-12-22 0847ET

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